su_marke.gif (2405 bytes)

David Strömberg


WH 2008 Analysis


Home
IIES
New
People
Publications
Seminars
About
Institute for
International Economic Studies
Stockholm University
SE-106 91 Stockholm
SWEDEN

Phone: +46 8 16 43 77
Fax: +46 8 16 14 43
E-mail: info@iies.su.se
Webmaster:
www@iies.su.se

Last updated,

 October 1, 2008

As described in the paper, the model can be used to simulate a probability distribution over vote outcomes. The results shown below are based on opinion polls available October 1, using out-of-sample prediction errors, see discussion here.

 

Probability of winning

Obama McCain
79% 21%

Expected vote share

Obama McCain
52% 48%

Expected number of electoral votes

Obama McCain
324 214

Prob. of winning presidency without popular support

Obama McCain
5% 3%

 Obama had a 79 percent chance of winning the elections, receiving an average vote-share of 52 percent and an average 324 electoral votes. The risk that the president elect will not receive a majority of the popular votes is around 8 percent. It is more likely that Obama will be in this position (5 percent) than McCain (2 percent). Consequently, Obama benefits slightly from having the Electoral College system (this increases his chances of winning by 3 percent).  

The table below show the forecasted democratic vote shares, win percentages and the share of candidate visits that should go to each state, based on opinion polls available October 1.

Forcasted votes probabilities, by state

 

Forc. Dem.vote

Dem. win probability

Campaign share

FLORIDA

51.4

62.9

15.3

PENNSYLVANIA

54.2

83.2

12.6

OHIO

52.2

70.1

10.8

MICHIGAN

54.4

84.6

7.4

VIRGINIA

50.6

56.2

6.1

COLORADO

52.5

72.3

4.6

MISSOURI

49.8

48.1

4.5

MINNESOTA

54.3

84.1

3.8

WISCONSIN

54.9

86.9

3.3

NEW JERSEY

56.7

94.0

3.2

NEVADA

51.1

60.0

2.8

WASHINGTON

56.3

93.3

2.7

IOWA

55.6

90.0

2.5

NEW HAMPSHIRE

53.0

76.0

2.3

NEW MEXICO

54.6

86.0

2.1

NORTH CAROLINA

47.4

27.7

1.7

WEST VIRGINIA

48.6

37.5

1.6

ARIZONA

48.0

32.0

1.5

OREGON

56.8

94.2

1.5

ARKANSAS

47.6

28.7

1.4

CALIFORNIA

59.2

98.6

1.3

MAINE

56.5

93.9

1.1

ILLINOIS

59.5

98.6

1.1

INDIANA

46.7

22.8

0.9

GEORGIA

45.1

13.6

0.6

SOUTH CAROLINA

45.9

16.7

0.6

NEW YORK

60.4

99.2

0.5

CONNECTICUT

59.0

98.4

0.5

TEXAS

43.9

7.7

0.4

DELAWARE

57.7

96.7

0.4

LOUISIANA

44.1

8.7

0.4

MARYLAND

60.2

99.3

0.4

TENNESSEE

43.0

5.0

0.2

MONTANA

44.6

10.3

0.1

MISSISSIPPI

42.6

4.4

0.1

SOUTH DAKOTA

42.7

4.7

0.1

WYOMING

36.0

0.1

0.0

NORTH DAKOTA

43.2

5.6

0.0

RHODE ISLAND

63.5

100.0

0.0

ALABAMA

37.5

0.2

0.0

IDAHO

32.4

0.0

0.0

MASSACHUSETTS

64.1

100.0

0.0

HAWAII

63.2

100.0

0.0

NEBRASKA

38.4

0.3

0.0

OKLAHOMA

36.1

0.0

0.0

VERMONT

64.4

100.0

0.0

KENTUCKY

42.4

3.7

0.0

ALASKA

40.9

1.6

0.0

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

 

100.0

0.0

UTAH

32.1

0.0

0.0

KANSAS

40.9

1.6

0.0