Political turnover and institutional reform: Theory and evidence

by

Torsten Persson, Tim Besley and Marta Reynal-Querol

Abstract

Strengthening checks and balances (cohesive political institutions) is one of the key means of improving governance. This paper examines how such reforms are related to threats to the tenure of ruling political incumbents. We formalize this idea theoretically and test it empirically, using data on leaders since 1875 and events that decrease the likelihood that a group will remain in office. The econometric results are well in line with the theoretical predictions.