Political instability and institutional reform: Theory and Evidence

by

Timothy Besley, Torsten Persson and Marta Reynal-Querol

Abstract

Strengthening executive constraints is one of the key means of improving political governance. This paper argues that resilient leaders who face a lower probability of being replaced are less likely to reform institutions which constrain their power. We test this idea empirically using data on leaders since 1875 using two proxies of resilience: whether a leader survives to die in office and whether there are recent natural disasters during the leader's tenure. We show that both are associated with lower rates of leader turnover and a lower probability of a transition to strong executive constraints. This effect is robust across a wide range of specifications. Moreover, in line with the theory, it is specific to strengthening executive constraints rather than generalized political reform.